Key Points 12 min read
  • When you hit a problem, don't reach for a solution first — step back and ask 'what is the root problem I'm actually trying to solve?'
  • Break a decision into three layers — fact / inference / assumption — and the most common failure is an unverified underlying assumption
  • When making a choice, start from 'what do I need,' not 'what does the market recommend most'
Table of Contents

Why There’s a Real Gap Between “Understanding It” and “Being Able to Use It”

First principles is a concept a lot of people have heard of. Put simply, it means that when you run into a problem, you don’t rush to see how others did it, you don’t rush to look for industry conventions or so-called Best Practices — instead you step back to the most fundamental essence of the problem, and re-derive the solution from that essence. Its opposite is analogical thinking — you look at how someone else succeeded and copy it.

It sounds like it shouldn’t be hard at all. But in this episode of Dadu’s Small Talk, Joe (張國洋) points out a key observation: after so many years as a project management consultant and instructor, he’s found that where most people get stuck isn’t failing to understand the idea — it’s not knowing how to actually “get back to essence.” Tell someone to get back to essence, and they’ll say “I thought I was already at the essence” — but they’re not; most people simply don’t have the ability to truly step back to the essence.

The most famous example of first principles is how Elon Musk re-decomposed the cost of a battery. But Joe argues this method is actually more important for “ordinary office workers with limited resources” — because we can’t afford to take detours.

So instead of explaining the concept one more time, in this episode he gives three concrete thinking exercises. The point isn’t understanding, it’s forcing yourself to decompose and reflect this way on every problem you meet, gradually internalizing it into intuition.

graph TD
    A[Hit a problem / face a choice] --> B[Exercise 1<br/>What problem am I actually solving?]
    B --> C[Exercise 2<br/>What assumptions are hidden underneath?<br/>Fact / Inference / Assumption]
    C --> D[Exercise 3<br/>Start from my needs<br/>not from what the market offers]
    D --> E[A decision that goes straight to the core problem]

Exercise 1: Swap “What Should I Do” for “What Am I Actually Solving”

The most common question looks like this: “Joe, should I take the PMP exam or not?”

It’s a very classic yes/no question — pick “should” or “shouldn’t,” and life feels simple. But Joe says that if you answer directly, whether you say yes or no, you’ve jumped to a conclusion too fast and fallen into a trap. Because before the underlying context is clarified, “yes” or “no” doesn’t actually mean anything concrete.

So he’ll counter with: “What goal are you trying to achieve by taking the PMP?”

  • Some want the certificate, to shore up an academic credential;
  • Some want it to help at work;
  • More commonly, it’s for a career switch.

Suppose the person says they want to switch into being a product manager. He’ll keep pressing: “Have you researched what product manager job postings actually require? Do any of them require a PMP?” Most people freeze at this point — because they’ve never seriously looked; they just assume “get a PMP and you can be a product manager,” which is a very jumpy, linear kind of thinking.

The truth is usually: what a product manager needs isn’t the PMP at all, it’s whether you’ve actually built a product, whether you have data-analysis ability, whether you’re familiar with the business environment, whether you have experience collaborating with engineers. PMP might matter, but it’s way down the list — not the key, not a hard requirement. So why spend half a year now on a certificate that doesn’t directly help your goal?

This is the most basic application of first principles: you’re not making a decision at the “should I take the PMP” level — you step back and ask yourself “what problem am I trying to solve by taking the PMP,” define that truly core problem clearly first, then think it through from the ground up.

The Dadu books make a similar point: when facing a life choice, don’t write it as a yes/no question, don’t pick between two options (“Should I go abroad for an MBA?”), but think about the outcome you expect, then start decomposing and substituting. Retreat to what you actually want, rather than agonizing among the existing options.

The same holds in project management: when a new requirement comes in, your first reaction shouldn’t be “how do I do this,” but “wait — why does this problem exist? Is it a technical problem, a management problem, or a political problem?” If you get even the nature of the problem wrong, the downstream solution is guaranteed to go crooked. This is what people call “reading the situation” — step back to find the essence, and once the essence is clear, the solution takes half the effort for twice the result.

How to practice: Don’t rush to find an answer. Take a piece of paper, write down the problem, then ask yourself “is this really the problem I need to solve? Or is what I actually need to solve at a deeper level?” Ask “why” a few more times and you get a chance to dig down to the core.

Exercise 2: Surface the Hidden Assumptions Behind “Everyone Does It This Way”

We make many decisions every day, and each hides some assumptions — assumptions that are often invisible, so much so that you don’t even realize they’re there.

Joe’s example: after five to seven years of work, a lot of people start feeling anxious and stuck, and think “should I go get a master’s degree?” Ask them why, and they say “because the people who got promoted all seem to have a master’s.”

Let’s break it down — the observation “the people who got promoted all have a master’s” might be true, but the assumption underneath is: the master’s is the reason they got promoted. Does that hold?

Isn’t it possible that those people were more driven and ambitious to begin with, and went for the master’s simply because their personalities push them to pursue more; and that they got promoted because their work performance was good, with no direct connection to the master’s? The master’s might be one factor, but not the whole story.

This distinction is the crux of the decision:

  • If a master’s is the only reason for promotion, then of course you should go get it;
  • If a master’s is merely correlated, not causal, then you’d spend an extra two years (maybe going full-time, giving up the opportunity cost) only to find it doesn’t help your promotion at all — the loss is those two years of time and cost.

Joe suggests breaking any decision into three layers (this is also something Bryan often discusses on the show):

LayerDefinitionExample
FactCheckable, verifiableIt’s 27°C today
InferenceA judgment based on facts, but unverifiedIt’s 27°C, so the UV index outside is probably high
AssumptionA premise you take for granted but haven’t verifiedA master’s will help me get promoted

Where most people’s decisions go wrong isn’t that they misread a fact, nor that their inference is unreasonable — it’s that the bottom-layer assumption is simply wrong, and they never checked it.

Another high-frequency trap: you’re unhappy in your current job and want to switch, so you figure “I’m interested in another field, and a master’s will get me in.” But in many professional fields, if you have no relevant experience and didn’t come from that field originally, spending two years on a theory-heavy master’s still leaves a high chance you can’t break in. The question is — before you go, did you ask anyone actually in that field? If this path is common in that field, then it’s a fact, an assumption that’s been verified; but very possibly you ask around and everyone shakes their head, in which case the assumption doesn’t hold. The result is spending two years on the degree, sending out resumes, and nobody calls you in for an interview — a whole misunderstanding.

How to practice: Break the decision apart and pick out the assumptions inside it — is “doing this will make me rich / get me promoted / let me switch careers” actually true? Then do some degree of verification to connect it back to facts. If the data is insufficient, run the lowest-cost minimum viable plan as an experiment first, rather than making an assumption in your head, then filling in the blanks to support it, and only realizing at the very end that it was wrong. You’ll be surprised how many things you once took for granted don’t survive questioning.

Exercise 3: Start From “What Do I Need,” Not “What Does the Market Offer”

We live in an era of exploding options. Want to learn something? Tens of thousands of online courses. Want to invest? Hundreds or thousands of financial products. Want a job? Open a job board and there are tens of thousands of listings.

When there are too many options, most people try to shortcut the judgment — they look at reviews, rankings, what others recommend, or even hop onto Facebook or Threads to ask “I want this thing, please recommend something.” But this is precisely the classic analogical thinking: you start from “what does the market offer” and pick the most-recommended one out of all the options. Yet the most-recommended option may only suit the most people, or a specific group — it isn’t necessarily the best fit for you.

The first-principles approach is the reverse: don’t look at what the market offers first — first ask yourself “what is my current situation, what am I lacking, what do I need.” Get your own needs and the gaps you want to fill clear, then turn back to see what in the market connects to your needs. It’s possible your pick isn’t the one everyone recommends, but it delivers the most value for you.

Joe uses Dadu’s own founding as an example: back then they didn’t first look at what education outfits already existed and then imitate them (that would only lead into a red ocean) — they started from the fumbling experiences of their own twenties into their thirties, realized “how great it would’ve been to know these things a few years earlier,” then asked the adults around them and found everyone resonated and had similar gaps, and designed courses from those root problems. With a different starting point, the courses naturally grew to look nothing like a typical training provider’s.

Back to daily life: if you want to learn personal finance, don’t immediately jump on Threads asking “which ETF is good to buy right now” — first ask yourself “why do I want to learn personal finance” — is it for retirement? To save a home down payment within three years? Or fear of inflation eating your money? Different purposes lead to completely different strategies (steady ones, volatile ones, or even entirely different things). If you go with “what does everyone recommend,” you’ll very likely buy a pile of things that don’t fit your current needs.

How to practice: Before any important choice, spend ten minutes writing down your own needs. At this stage don’t read any recommendation posts, don’t ask anyone — purely ask yourself “what is my current situation, where do I want to get to, what’s missing in between.” Take stock of the gap between your current state and your goal, then think about the options. You’ll find your judgment suddenly gets much stronger — because you’re building a clear, explicit standard for yourself, instead of parroting others and applying their standards to you.

Why This Matters Especially for Ordinary Office Workers

Articles on first principles mostly cite examples of how Elon Musk or Steve Jobs made business decisions, so some people mistakenly think “that’s a method only geniuses or big bosses use.” Joe argues it’s exactly the opposite.

Geniuses and big bosses already have plenty of resources and ability to try all kinds of methods; but ordinary people’s time, money, and energy are all limited, and often we simply can’t afford to take detours. Just like those who go for a master’s to switch careers and end up stuck — the place they wanted to go won’t take them, and if they want to fall back, they’ve wasted two years of tenure, stuck neither up nor down.

Precisely because resources are limited and we can’t cover everything, we need all the more, at critical moments, to stop and think it through: am I taking this path because I’ve thought through the whole context and know it truly helps my core problem — or just because everyone else takes it, so I blindly trust “it should work out well for me too”? Spend your limited resources where they count — that’s exactly what first principles is telling you.

The Three Exercises, One More Time

  1. When you hit a problem, first ask “what am I actually solving,” don’t over-agonize over surface options; if an option doesn’t connect to the problem, yes or no is meaningless.
  2. Before any important decision, decompose the approach, pick out the assumptions inside, and verify them; proceed only if they pass, and if they don’t, don’t — it might save you millions and two years.
  3. When making a choice, start from your own needs, not from what the market offers; define the problem clearly and experiment on the solution’s assumptions clearly, and you can go straight to the core problem.

These three things sound simple, and they genuinely aren’t hard — the key is to internalize them into intuition. Once they become intuition, the quality of your life decisions will be completely different — because you’re no longer being pushed along by the options, you’re steering the direction yourself.

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🇺🇸 English

You've probably heard the phrase "first principles" before. The idea is simple enough: when you hit a problem, you don't rush to see how everyone else solved it, you don't reach for industry conventions or so-called best practices. Instead, you step back to the most fundamental essence of the problem, and rebuild the solution from there. The opposite of that is analogical thinking — you find someone who succeeded, and you copy them.

Sounds easy, right? But here's the thing. In this episode of Dadu's Small Talk, Joe — Chang Kuo-yang — makes a sharp observation. After years as a project management consultant and instructor, he's found that where most people get stuck isn't understanding the idea. It's actually getting back to the essence. Tell someone to get back to essence, and they'll say, "I thought I was already there." But they're not. Most people simply don't have the ability to truly step back.

Now, the most famous example of first principles is Elon Musk breaking down the cost of a battery from scratch. But Joe argues this method matters even more for ordinary office workers with limited resources — because we can't afford to take detours. So instead of explaining the concept one more time, he offers three concrete thinking exercises. The goal isn't to understand them. It's to force yourself to decompose every problem this way until it becomes intuition.

Let's start with exercise one: swap "what should I do" for "what am I actually solving."

The classic question Joe gets is, "Joe, should I take the PMP exam or not?" A nice clean yes-or-no. But Joe says if you answer that directly — either way — you've already fallen into a trap. Because until you clarify the context underneath, "yes" or "no" doesn't mean anything.

So he counters with, "What goal are you trying to hit by taking the PMP?" Some people want the certificate to shore up a credential. Some want it to help at work. But most commonly, it's for a career switch. Say someone wants to become a product manager. Joe keeps pressing: "Have you actually looked at product manager job postings? Do any of them require a PMP?" And most people freeze — because they never looked. They just assumed, "get a PMP, become a product manager." That's jumpy, linear thinking.

The truth is, what a product manager actually needs is: have you built a product, can you analyze data, do you understand the business environment, have you worked with engineers. PMP might matter, but it's way down the list. So why burn six months on a certificate that doesn't move you toward your real goal?

That's the most basic application of first principles. You're not deciding at the "should I take the PMP" level. You step back and ask, "what problem am I trying to solve by taking it?" Define that core problem first, then reason up from the ground.

And this works everywhere. In project management, when a new requirement lands, your first reaction shouldn't be "how do I do this." It should be, "wait — why does this problem even exist? Is it technical, is it managerial, or is it political?" Get the nature of the problem wrong, and everything downstream goes crooked. People call this reading the situation. Find the essence, and the solution takes half the effort for twice the result.

How do you practice this? Don't rush to an answer. Write the problem down. Then ask yourself, "is this really the problem I need to solve? Or is the real one sitting a layer deeper?" Ask "why" a few more times, and you get a shot at the core.

Exercise two: surface the hidden assumptions behind "everyone does it this way."

Every day we make decisions, and each one hides assumptions we don't even notice. Joe's example: after five to seven years on the job, a lot of people feel stuck and think, "should I go get a master's?" Ask them why, and they say, "because everyone who got promoted seems to have one."

Let's take that apart. The observation — "the promoted people all have master's degrees" — might be true. But the assumption buried underneath is that the master's caused the promotion. Does that hold? Couldn't it be that those people were just more driven to begin with? They chased the master's because their personality pushes them to chase things, and they got promoted because their work was good — with no direct link to the degree at all? The master's might be one factor, but it's not the whole story.

And that distinction is the entire decision. If the master's is the only reason people get promoted, then sure, go get it. But if it's merely correlated, not causal, you'll spend two years — maybe full-time, giving up real income — only to find it does nothing for your promotion.

Joe suggests breaking any decision into three layers. First, facts — things you can check and verify. Like, it's twenty-seven degrees today. Second, inferences — judgments based on facts, but not yet verified. It's twenty-seven degrees, so the UV outside is probably high. And third, assumptions — premises you take for granted but never checked. Like, "a master's will help me get promoted." And here's the key insight: most bad decisions don't come from misreading a fact or making an unreasonable inference. They come from a bottom-layer assumption that's simply wrong — and nobody ever checked it.

There's another common version of this trap. You're unhappy in your job, you're interested in a different field, so you figure, "a master's will get me in." But in a lot of professional fields, if you have no relevant experience and didn't come from that background, two years of a theory-heavy degree still leaves you on the outside. So the question is: before you commit, did you actually ask anyone working in that field? If that path is common there, great — it's a verified assumption. But very often you ask around and everyone shakes their head. Then you spend two years, send out resumes, and nobody even calls you in. A whole misunderstanding.

To practice: pull the decision apart, find the assumptions inside, and ask — is "doing this will make me rich, or get me promoted, or let me switch careers" actually true? Then verify it against reality. And if you don't have enough data, run the lowest-cost minimum viable experiment first, rather than inventing an assumption in your head and backfilling reasons to believe it. You'll be amazed how many things you took for granted don't survive a little questioning.

Exercise three: start from "what do I need," not "what does the market offer."

We're drowning in options. Want to learn something? Tens of thousands of online courses. Want to invest? Hundreds of financial products. Want a job? Thousands of listings. And when there's too much, most people shortcut it — they check reviews, rankings, recommendations. They hop on Facebook or Threads and post, "I want this thing, what should I get?"

But that's textbook analogical thinking. You start from what the market offers and pick the most-recommended option. And the most-recommended option only suits the most people, or one specific group. It's not necessarily the best fit for you.

First principles flips it. Don't look at the market first. Ask yourself, "what's my situation? What am I lacking? What do I actually need?" Get clear on your own gaps, and then turn to see what in the market connects to them. Your pick might not be the popular one — but it delivers the most value for you.

Joe uses Dadu's own founding as an example. They didn't survey the existing education companies and imitate them — that just leads into a red ocean. They started from their own fumbling experiences through their twenties and thirties, the feeling of "if only I'd known this a few years earlier." They asked the adults around them, found everyone had the same gaps, and designed courses from those root problems. Different starting point, completely different product.

Back to everyday life. Want to learn personal finance? Don't immediately jump on Threads asking "which ETF should I buy." First ask, "why do I want to learn this?" For retirement? For a home down payment in three years? Or because inflation is eating your savings? Different purposes lead to completely different strategies — some steady, some volatile, sometimes something else entirely. Chase what everyone recommends, and you'll end up with a pile of stuff that doesn't fit you at all.

To practice: before any important choice, spend ten minutes writing down your own needs. At this stage, read no recommendation posts, ask no one. Just ask yourself — where am I now, where do I want to be, what's missing in between. Map that gap first, then look at the options. Your judgment gets sharper almost instantly, because now you're holding a clear standard of your own, instead of borrowing everyone else's and pretending it fits.

And here's why this matters especially for ordinary office workers. Most first-principles articles cite Musk or Jobs making huge business calls, so people assume it's a genius-only method. Joe says it's the exact opposite. Geniuses and big bosses have the resources to try everything. Ordinary people don't. Our time, money, and energy are limited — we often literally can't afford the detour. Just like the person who goes for a master's to switch careers and ends up stranded: the field they wanted won't take them, and they've thrown away two years of tenure. Stuck, neither up nor down.

Precisely because we can't cover everything, we need — at the critical moments — to stop and ask: am I taking this path because I've thought through the whole picture and know it serves my real problem? Or just because everyone else takes it, so I blindly trust it'll work out for me too? Spend your limited resources where they count. That's what first principles is really telling you.

So let me leave you with three takeaways.

One: when you hit a problem, ask "what am I actually solving" before agonizing over surface options. If an option doesn't connect to the real problem, yes or no is meaningless.

Two: before any big decision, break the approach down, find the assumptions inside, and verify them. Go only if they pass. That habit might save you two years and a small fortune.

And three: when you choose, start from your own needs, not from what the market hands you. Define the problem clearly, test your assumptions cheaply, and you go straight to the core.

None of these are hard. The real work is turning them into intuition. And once they become intuition, the quality of your decisions changes completely — because you're no longer being pushed along by the options. You're steering the direction yourself.

🇹🇼 中文

第一性原理這個概念,很多人都聽過。簡單講,就是遇到問題的時候,不要急著去看別人怎麼做、不要急著抄業界慣例,而是先退回到問題最根本的本質,再從那個本質重新推導出解法。它的相反,就是類比思維——看別人成功怎麼做,然後照著抄。

聽起來一點都不難。但大人學的 Joe,張國洋,在這集《大人的 Small Talk》裡點出一個很關鍵的觀察:做了這麼多年專案管理顧問跟講師,他發現大部分人卡住的地方,不是不懂這個道理,而是根本不知道要怎麼「回到本質」。你叫他回到本質,他會說「我以為我已經在本質了」,但其實沒有,他並沒有能力真的退回去。

第一性原理最有名的例子,是 Elon Musk 怎麼用它重新拆解電池的成本。但 Joe 認為,這個方法對資源有限的一般上班族反而更重要——因為我們沒有本錢去走冤枉路。

所以他這集不再重複講概念,而是直接給三個具體的思考練習。整個流程大概是這樣:遇到問題或要做選擇的時候,先問「我到底在解決什麼問題」,接著拆出「背後藏了哪些假設」,最後「從我自己的需求出發,而不是市場上有什麼」。重點不是理解,而是逼自己碰到任何問題都用這種方式去拆、去反思,慢慢內化成直覺。

先講第一個練習:把「我該怎麼辦」換成「我到底在解決什麼問題」。

最常見的提問長這樣:「Joe,我該不該去考 PMP?」這是個非常經典的是非題,選該或不該,感覺人生好像很簡單。但 Joe 說,你直接回答,不管講該還是不該,都是太快下結論、掉進陷阱。因為背後脈絡沒釐清之前,是或不是根本沒有具體意義。

所以他會反問:「你考 PMP 是為了達成什麼目標?」有人是想拿證照、補學術認證;有人是為了工作上有幫助;更常見的,是為了轉職。假設對方說要轉職去當產品經理,他會繼續追問:「你有沒有研究過,產品經理的職缺到底要求什麼?裡面有要求 PMP 嗎?」大部分人到這裡就愣住了——因為他們從沒認真查過,只是覺得「考了 PMP 就能當產品經理」,這是一種非常跳躍、非常線性的思考。

真相往往是:產品經理要的根本不是 PMP,而是你有沒有做過產品、有沒有數據分析能力、熟不熟商業環境、有沒有跟工程師協作的經驗。PMP 也許重要,但排在很後面,不是關鍵、不是剛需。那你何必現在花半年,去考一張對目標沒有直接幫助的認證?

這就是第一性原理最基本的應用:你不是在「要不要考 PMP」這個層次做決策,而是後退一步,問自己「我考 PMP,到底是想解決什麼問題」,把那個真正核心的問題先定義清楚,再從根本開始想。碰到人生抉擇,不要把它寫成是非題、不要二選一,而是去想你期待的結果是什麼,然後開始拆解、置換。

做專案管理也一樣:一個新需求進來,第一個反應不該是「這怎麼做」,而是「等等,為什麼會有這個問題?它到底是技術問題、管理問題,還是政治問題?」如果連問題的性質都搞錯,後面的解法一定歪掉。這就是常講的「看懂局」。怎麼練?不要急著找答案,拿一張紙把問題寫下來,然後問自己「這真的是我要解的問題嗎?還是更底層另有其事?」多問幾個為什麼,就有機會挖到核心。

第二個練習:找出「大家都這樣」背後的隱含假設。

我們每天做很多決策,背後都藏著假設,而這些假設常常是隱形的,你甚至沒意識到它存在。Joe 的例子:很多人工作五到七年後開始焦慮、卡關,就會想「我是不是該去念個研究所?」問他為什麼,他說「因為我看那些升遷的人,好像都有碩士學歷」。

拆解一下——「升遷的人都有碩士」這個觀察可能是真的,但背後的假設是:碩士是他們升遷的原因。這個成立嗎?有沒有可能,那些人本來就比較積極、有企圖心,去念碩士只是因為個性本來就會追求更多;而他們升遷是因為工作表現好,跟碩士沒有直接關係?碩士也許是因素之一,但不是全部。

這個區別是決策的關鍵:如果碩士是升遷的唯一原因,那你當然該去念;但如果碩士只是相關、不是因果,那你額外花兩年、甚至全職去念、賠上機會成本,最後發現對升遷根本沒幫助,損失的就是這兩年的時間跟成本。

這裡 Joe 建議把任何決策都拆成三個層次來看。第一層是事實,可查證、可驗證的,比如今天二十七度。第二層是推論,基於事實做的判斷,但你還沒查證,比如二十七度、外面紫外線可能很高。第三層是假設,你以為理所當然、卻還沒被驗證的前提,比如「念碩士可以幫我升遷」。大部分人決策出問題,不是事實看錯、也不是推論不合理,而是最底層那個假設根本就是錯的,而他從來沒查驗過。

另一個高頻踩雷:在現職做得不愉快想轉職,就覺得「我對另一個領域有興趣,去念個碩士就能轉過去」。但在很多專業領域,你沒有相關經驗、本質不是那個領域出身,念個兩年理論的碩士,很高機率還是切不進去。問題是——在去念之前,你有沒有找那個領域的人問過?如果這條路在那領域很常見,那是事實、假設被驗證;但很可能你問一圈,大家都搖頭,那這個假設就不成立。結果就是花兩年念出來,投履歷沒人約面試,誤會一場。

怎麼練?把決策拆開,挑出裡頭的假設——「我做這個就能賺大錢、升遷、轉職」,是真的嗎?然後做一定程度的驗證,去跟事實連上。如果資料不夠,就用成本最低的最小可行計畫先實驗,而不是心裡先做了假設、再腦補去支持它,一路走到最後才發現錯了。你會很驚訝,過去很多以為理所當然的事,其實經不起追問。

第三個練習:從「我需要什麼」出發,而不是「市場有什麼」。

我們處在一個選項爆炸的時代。想學東西,線上課程幾萬堂;想投資,金融商品幾千幾百種;想找工作,人力銀行一打開幾萬個職缺。選項太多的時候,大部分人會想縮短判斷——去看評價、看排名、看別人推薦什麼,甚至跑去社群上問「我要這個東西,請大家推薦」。但這正是典型的類比思維:你是從「市場上有什麼」出發,在所有選項裡挑一個最多人推薦的。可是最多人推薦的,只適合最多人、或某個特定族群,不一定最適合你。

第一性原理的做法是反過來的:先不要看市場有什麼,先問自己「我現在的狀況是什麼、我缺什麼、我需要什麼」。把自己的需求、想補的洞想清楚,再回頭去看市場上能連上你需求的是什麼。有可能你選的不是大家推薦的,但對你來說效益最大。

Joe 用大人學自己的創業舉例:當年他們不是先去看市場上有什麼教育機構、再模仿做類似的事——那樣只會進紅海;而是從自己二十幾歲到三十幾歲跌跌撞撞的體會出發,發現「這些事如果早幾年知道該多好」,再去問身邊的成年人,發現大家都有共鳴、有類似的缺,然後從這些根本問題去設計課程。出發點不同,課程自然長得跟一般培訓單位不一樣。

回到日常:想學理財,不要一上來就跑去問「現在買什麼 ETF 好」,而是先問自己「我為什麼要學理財」——是為了退休?三年內存到買房頭期款?還是怕錢被通膨吃掉?目的不同,策略會完全不同,穩當的、波動大的,甚至根本是不同的事。怎麼練?做任何重要選擇前,先花十分鐘寫下自己的需求。這時候不要看任何推薦文、不要問任何人,純粹問自己「我現在的處境是什麼、我想到達的地方在哪、中間缺什麼」。盤點清楚現況跟目標的落差,再來看選項。你會發現判斷力忽然變強很多——因為你是在幫自己建立清楚的標準,而不是人云亦云,拿別人的標準來套。

最後 Joe 特別強調,為什麼這對一般上班族特別重要。談第一性原理的文章,舉的例子大多是 Elon Musk、賈伯斯怎麼做商業決策,於是有人誤以為「那是天才或大老闆才用的方法」。Joe 認為剛好相反。天才跟大老闆本來就有很多資源去嘗試各種方法;但一般人的時間、錢、精力都有限,很多時候根本沒有本錢走冤枉路。就像那些想轉職而去念碩士、結果卡住的人——想去的地方不收你,想退回來,兩年資歷又浪費了,不上不下。正因為資源有限,我們更需要在關鍵時刻停下來想清楚:我走這條路,是因為把脈絡都想清楚了、知道它能真正幫到我的核心問題,還是只因為別人都走、所以閉著眼睛相信「我走應該也會很好」?

好,收尾之前,把三個核心要點整理一次。

第一,遇到問題,先問「我到底在解決什麼問題」,不要在表面選項上過度糾結;選項如果沒連上問題,是或不是都沒有意義。

第二,做任何重要決定前,把做法拆解開,挑出裡頭的假設並且去驗證;驗證通過才值得往下走,通不過就別走——搞不好幫你省下兩年、省下幾百萬。

第三,做選擇時先從自己的需求出發,而不是市場有什麼;需求想清楚、假設實驗清楚,你就能直搗核心。

這三件事聽起來很簡單,也確實不難,關鍵是把它內化成直覺。一旦變成直覺,你做人生決策的品質會完全不一樣——因為你不再是被選項推著走,而是自己在主導方向。

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